Availability of Aluminium Scrap in Europe
Aluminium scrap is a significant, critical material for the European aluminium industry.
In principle, aluminium can be recycled infinitely without any loss of quality. This makes aluminium scrap a key material for achieving the targets sets out in the European Union’s Clean Industrial Deal and establishing a robust circular economy in the EU. The European aluminium industry is making every effort to promote aluminium recycling in all European countries, reduce the industry’s ecological footprint and support the aforementioned political initiatives. Recycled aluminium accounts for roughly 40% of all aluminium used in the European Union (5 million tons per year). The aluminium industry has invested hundreds of millions of euro in the construction and expansion of recycling facilities and the development of state-of-the-art smelting and scrap separation technologies.While the industry forecasts a 30% increase in aluminium demand by 2040, European primary metal production has fallen by 1.2 million tons since 2021. The main reasons for this are rising electricity prices and a lack of government support, such as to ensure competitive electricity prices.However, with demand aluminium still high and rising further, it will be impossible to meet this demand through recycling alone – meaning that high quantities of imported aluminium will be needed to fill the gap. This growing reliance on non-EU suppliers has significant environmental impacts. In 2023, the carbon footprint of imported primary aluminium was almost 60% greater than that of European primary aluminium.The situation is further exacerbated by a gradual increase in annual exports of aluminium scrap from the European Union to third countries. In 2024, for example, roughly 15% of available melting capacity for recycled aluminium in Europe went unused due to the unavailability of aluminium scrap. This reduced availability leads to products with less favorable carbon footprints and inevitably increases costs. This directly impacts downstream product prices and further impairs Europe’s ability to compete.
Aluminium scrap: Availability, demand and exports
A product life cercle fundamentally determines the availability of a given type of scrap. In the automotive and construction industries, this can range from around 15 to 40 years. Only at that point is the scrap material either returned to the cycle or exported. This has significant impacts on the current availability of scrap over time and must be considered in any calculations. However, the large quantities of aluminium scrap and used cars leaving the European Union represents a real problem. In recent years, European Union member states have exported roughly 0.8 to 1.2 million tons of aluminium scrap to third countries each year. The figures for used cars paint a similar picture. According to the German Environment Agency (UBA), around 2.4 million end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) were exported from Germany to third countries in 2022. In contrast, only around 300,000 ELVs were recycled domestically. Therefore, it can easily be deduced that the quantities of scrap obtained from ELVs are very manageable. If we compare the quantity of exported vehicles against the recycling capacities currently going unused, it is clear that the majority of these ELVs could – and should – be recycled in the European Union.
Thanks to technical and technological advances, the European aluminium industry is in a position to return an overwhelming proportion of current exported scrap to the product cycle economically and in full compliance with stringent environmental regulations. In sum, then, it would be most environmentally expedient to return to recycling as much scrap as possible here in Europe.An important factor in this context is often overlooked: by exporting scrap from Europe, we are exporting energy – energy we urgently need – as aluminium recycling requires at most 5% of the energy required to produce primary aluminium. Primary metal also involves purchasing expensive energy, which also comes often with a large carbon footprint
As Figure 1 demonstrates, export volumes are rising steadily, with India, Thailand and China the main recipients. The figures for the first half of 2025 show exports in excess of 600,000 tons. Since Q2 2025, aluminium products (including primary metal) has been subject to US import tariffs of 50%. Tellingly, however, these tariffs do not apply to scrap aluminium, as the USA wishes to ensure low-cost imports of raw materials and energy. This massive arbitrage has made European scrap a highly prized commodity. As it stands, valuable raw materials are being lost and energy exported. More scrap was exported to the USA in the first six months of 2025 than in the entirety of 2024.
Furthermore, Asian scrap buyers who had previously relied on scrap from the USA are increasingly turning their attention to European scrap. Keeping EU scrap in the EU material cycle is essential for the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Regulation, which will come into effect on January 1, 2026. This is a potential measure to ensure that the European aluminium industry does not lose its ability to compete and can continue to reduce its carbon footprint.
Of course, there are other potential means of increasing the availability of aluminium scrap, such as recycling end-of-life aircraft and taking additional measures to reduce aluminium in landfill waste. Even though metals are already recovered through waste separation, sorting and separating them in advance would be preferable from both metallurgical and economic perspectives. The demand for scrap from aluminium recycling remains high and will continue to rise. This can be attributed to increasing European demand for aluminium, environmental considerations in the form of a smaller carbon footprint, the political demands of the Clean Industrial Deal in conjunction with minimum recycled material ratios in new, recycling-friendly alloys for different segments, and the need for the European aluminium industry to be able to compete globally.
Free trade? Absolutely. But are conditions around the world comparable and fair?
The European Union is fundamentally committed to global free trade. However, conditions in importing countries must be vaguely comparable and fair. The Environmental Performance Index is an annual ranking of certain nations with respect to various environmental factors, such as waste processing, waste management and air quality. As Figure 2 demonstrates, European countries have already established an excellent position and achieved very high rankings. Many effective and sustainable measures have been implemented across Europe over recent decades, including in the form of investments, public awareness and regulations. However, these measures also entail higher costs. For the major importers of EU scrap, however, the situation is markedly different, which inevitably produces imbalanced and unfair competitive conditions.
What changes are needed regarding raw material supply to create a sustainable, competitive aluminium industry?
Against the backdrop of growing geopolitical tensions, the European aluminium industry faces numerous challenges. These range from securing strategic sites to the responsible management of scrap and raw materials. In addition to securing supplies and supporting value creation in Europe, environmental and social factors are also high priorities. Efficiency improvements in waste sorting technology represents an opportunity for the EU to increase its recycling rates and thereby reduce its reliance on imports (e.g. of primary metal) from countries with lower environmental and social standards. Supporting innovation and intensifying knowledge sharing and technology transfer within the EU will be essential.Optimizing energy use and minimizing exports of sustainable raw materials remain central key to the future requirements for low-emission industry. Rising demand for recycled aluminium – in particular against the backdrop of new product developments and stricter recycling quotas – underscores the importance of ensuring a closed European circular economy.At the same time, it is notable that a growing number of countries that import European scrap impose export restrictions on their own scrap, which is forcing the direction of national export strategies. If the European aluminium industry’s ability to compete and environmental credentials are to be protected for the long term, increased integration throughout the value chain and political incentives for sustainable production and recycling processes will be vital. Despite lofty political objectives like the EU’s Clean Industrial Deal and its Circular Economy Strategy, no impactful measures have been announced to date.
Summary
A sustainable and competitive aluminium industry is essential if the EU is to implement its Clean Industrial Deal in practice and establish a strong circular economy. It will therefore be necessary to ensure high scrap availability at competitive prices. The aluminium industry expects political decision-makers to take corresponding action as quickly as possible to prevent the outflow of critical raw materials (and, by extension, energy), to remedy unfair market conditions for exports in other regions, and to implement other appropriate measures as outlined in the Steel and Metals Action Plan.These measures will counteract the ongoing deterioration and contribute to creating equal competitive conditions for European aluminium recyclers, who compete on global markets. Market forces will determine whether or not raw materials leave Europe (EU/EFTA). These measures will primarily focus on correcting imbalanced competitive conditions.Restoring balance to the scrap aluminium market will improve access to domestic scrap and help to develop a stronger, more environmentally friendly and more self-sustaining industrial basis throughout the entire process chain. Another important aspect is the development of innovative scrap recovery and melting technologies, combined with efforts to break down international bureaucratic barriers to an efficient European supply chain.Only through a holistic approach that takes account of geopolitical, environmental and technological aspects will the EU be able to consolidate its role as an outrider for a responsible aluminium economy that is ready for the future.
Sources:
[1] European Aluminium EA (2024): - Link: share_link and estimation of EA for 2024 - EA survey 2024 - EA Environmental-Profile-Report_2024-V20.pdf, - IAI continues-with-total-emissions-below-2020-peak/[2] S&P Global Commodity insights, IAI (2024): Infographic: Europe's shrinking aluminum sector prepares for CBAM transition challenge[3] EU (2025): Commission introduces surveillance of imports and exports of metal scrap - European Commission Eurostat (2025)[4] Umweltbundesamt Deutschland (2024/03): www.umweltbundesamt.de
